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BrainRotMenacer (December 31, 1969 at 6:59 pm)
Actually the host showing either door equates to 1/6 each, not 1/4. So you add them up for a total of 1/3.
giovea (December 31, 1969 at 6:59 pm)
well 66.6% of 2 doors is something like 1.33 /2...can we be stupid enough to consider choose the revealed goat or perhaps you need a car so much you lost your mind!and should he ask you to reconsider your reconsideration, then what????hehehe
studmuffin018 (December 31, 1969 at 6:59 pm)
I learend this from the movie 21
giovea (December 31, 1969 at 6:59 pm)
Anyway for those interested is fullstrikes.blogspot. I really didn't liked this mess, more when i found out it was 40 years old! incredible...
giovea (December 31, 1969 at 6:59 pm)
hei brainromenacer. Good thinking to name the goat BUT you didnt work well enough on one branch, YOU MISSED to branch the too option when you pck the car, the host can show you goat A or goat B, eitheir way you loose, so really 50/50, which makes sense since is a 1/2... !!!OBVIOUS SINCE THE START
blacky159 (December 31, 1969 at 6:59 pm)
thanks, great explenation!
giovea (December 31, 1969 at 6:59 pm)
it's all wrong, it's a dependant chain of events live taking a ball from a bag with 3 and not replacing it, and it's statisticly irrelevant if you "choose" before or after door 1 opens. "event" that matters is doors revealed.those were the mistakes of this dogma.so, following a time line we branch the chain of events, door1 opens, then door 2 opens.1STCASE. Door 1 goat (2/3) x door 2 is 50/50 (goat or car )= 1/3 each , congruent!2STCASE Door 1 car (game over) x door 2 1/1 goat=the other 1/3
giovea (December 31, 1969 at 6:59 pm)
No it is not determined, just a DOGNMA.you have to PROVE IT like i do , pre test and post test, figures must be the same- 1/3!!!!2 events in chain1st goat (2/3)x 50/50 chance (2/3x1/2= 1/3 each)1st car (1/3) x goat (100=1) =1/3 the remainingpre test 1/3, pos test 1/3, correct calculations . end of point
winocologist (December 31, 1969 at 6:59 pm)
giovea, the goat's 'given' before you even choose a door, because you KNOW Monty will show a goat ya didn't pick.(don't even need Monty--deal yerself cards.) Monty can tell ya nothing new. Whether ya pick the car or a goat, he'll only tell ya what ya already knew: there's a goat ya didn't pick. It's ALREADY DETERMINED whether switching's advantageous, once ya pick a door. EVERY SINGLE time ya pick a goat initially, switching's advantageous, & ya pick a goat initially 2/3 of the time.
giovea (December 31, 1969 at 6:59 pm)
..and i have no problem to post it after 40 years since i just saw it. as to shortness E=mc2 is pretty damn short. what happens is that you go around a mistake with inumerous calculations and of course, you end wrong. given the goat you dont start with 1/3 for christ! |
